By Ayodeji Jeremiah
The forthcoming general elections of April 2011 (the fourth since the departure of the military from governance) promises to be quite exciting. In 1999, there were only three political parties: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Nigeria’s People Party (ANPP) and the Alliance for Democracy (AD). The two presidential candidates then, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo (who contested on the platform of the PDP) and Chief Olu Falae (who contested on the joint platform of the ANPP/AD) were both Yorubas, a measure taken in order to placate the South West region of the country over the June 12 debacle.
Chief Obasanjo went on to become president initiating a string of reforms and bringing in a team of technocrats including World Bank Managing Director, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweanla to manage the finance ministry. Debts of over $30 billion were negotiated, forgiven or paid off. The new President took over a country that faced many problems, including a dysfunctional bureaucracy, collapsed infrastructure, and a military that wanted a reward for returning quietly to the barracks. The President moved quickly and retired hundreds of military officers holding political positions, established a blue-ribbon panel to investigate human rights violations, released scores of persons held without charge, and rescinded numerous questionable licenses and contracts left by the previous military regimes. The government also moved to recover millions of dollars in funds secreted to overseas accounts. The fight against corruption was also instituted during this period.
Most civil society leaders and Nigerians witnessed marked improvements in human rights and freedom of the press under Obasanjo. The new president faced the daunting task of rebuilding a petroleum-based economy, whose revenues have been squandered through corruption and mismanagement.
In 2003, the then incumbent president Chief Obasanjo contested against General Muhammed Buhari (contesting on the ANPP platform) and a plethora of 17 other minor candidates in elections that were marred by vote rigging and some violence. Buhari, who lost unsuccessfully contested the results in the courts. The last general elections in Nigeria held in April 2007 have been described as one of the worst, if not the worst in the history of elections in the country.
Late Umaru Yar'Adua and Goodluck Jonathan, both of the People's Democratic Party, who were elected President and Vice President, respectively, competed against 21 other presidential candidates. Notwithstanding the irregularities in the 2007 elections, a lot of Nigerians believed that life most go on. Attempts made by opposition parties and members of civil society groups to call out pro-democracy protests on the scale of the June 12 1993 watershed elections were largely met with apathy from Nigerians. This might not be unconnected with the fact that many Nigerians believed that many of the opposition parties then (there were about 50 parties in all then) including the major ones such as the Action Congress (founded and powered as a splinter group of the AD by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu), All Nigeria Peoples Party, the Alliance for Democracy, All Progressive Grand Alliance, the People’s Progressive Alliance, the Labour Party and Fresh Democratic Party did not get their acts right before the elections and did not work quite as hard also.
Most of the presidential candidates presented by these parties also seemed to have a larger than life image of themselves. Of the 22 presidential candidates then, amongst whom were former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (Action Congress); General Mohammed Buhari (All Nigeria Peoples Party); Professor Pat Utomi (African Democratic Congress, ADC); Reverend Chris Okotie (Fresh Democratic Party, FDP); Governor Orji Uzor Kalu (People’s Progressive Alliance, PPA); Chief Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu (All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA); Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa (Democratic People’s Party, DPP); Chief Adebayo Adefarati (Alliance for Democracy, AD); only very few were easily recognised by Nigerians. A lot of Nigerians including educated and well exposed ones could not name more than five or six candidates when asked to mention those contesting the 2007 presidential elections.
Considering the torrid political history of Nigeria; everyone is waiting with bated breath for the April 2011 elections. Will 2011 be different from 1964, 1983, 2003 and 2007? What does the future hold for Nigeria in terms of political leadership? Will old rivalries and wounds be resuscitated to the extent of destabilising the polity or will Nigeria witness a dramatic change that will lead us to our El-Dorado? Being the biggest democracy in Africa, it is not just Nigerians that are waiting but the whole world.
Major Presidential Contenders in 2011
This year, we have 18 candidates contesting the presidential elections of which four major front runners have emerged namely the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan contesting on the platform of the ruling party (the PDP); General Muhammed Buhari contesting this time on the platform of his newly founded party, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC); former corruption czar Alhaji Nuhu Ribadu, contesting on the platform of the now rebranded Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau, governor of Kano state, contesting on the platform of the ANPP.
Prior to submission of lists to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in February, President Jonathan and General Buhari were the leading favourites; Jonathan by virtue of his incumbency and belonging to the largest political party in the country and Buhari by virtue of his popularity in the North West and a master stroke in picking a popular Southwest pastor and activist as his Vice-Presidential candidate, Tunde Bakare. Bakare had bought political capital in 2009/2010 by virtue of his leadership of the Save Nigeria Group, (a political action group) which took charge and organised protests and rallies when the nation was more or less without leadership for over 50 days when the late president was incommunicado and his vice president (Jonathan) was powerless in ruling the country.
Bakare’s choice is believed to have been influenced by Buhari’s aim to allay fears of his Islamist stance and win over converts in the south-western pats of the country, where he is not very popular. Some people are however still sceptical of the CPC ticket due to what is seen as the non-conformist and antagonistic nature of the two men on the ticket. ACN however, (whose candidate, Ribadu is quite popular amongst the youths) increased the popularity of its candidate with its pick of respected banker and accountant, Fola Adeola as its vice presidential candidate. Prior to this, a lot of people had considered Ribadu as an also-ran with not too many willing to consider him despite his anti-corruption credentials due to what they termed his rabid nature and inexperience in political and governance matters. Adeola’s emergence has however reduced these fears. ANPP which had hitherto been the second largest political party and now the fourth largest was not in any serious contention for the presidency until the presidential debate organised by NN24 and Next Media groups. The performance of its candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau on the day of the debate surprised many. For about 12 hours after the debate, Shekarau was ‘trending’ on Twitter and Facebook. Google searches on him quadrupled over the next one week. Shekarau, suddenly became the ‘special bride’ overnight.
The other fourteen candidates including Dr. Pat Utomi, Chief Dele Momodu, Rev. Chris Okotie, Mr. John Dara amongst others will probably pick a few thousand votes here and there. Shekarau, unless a miracle happens will probably not win though will eat significantly into the votes of Jonathan, Buhari and Ribadu. The 2011 elections will therefore be a three pronged fight between these three.
Why should Nigerians expect anything different in 2011?
First is the appointment of a respected former university lecturer and activist as the electoral umpire, Professor Attahiru Jega, the INEC chairman. Jega has instituted several reforms at the administrative and organizational level across board in INEC and has also put in place measures to stem electoral practices both by staff and by parties. He has actively put up resistance and stood his ground against the political parties over some actions and decisions. His case has been helped by the passage of the Electoral Reforms Act, whose passage at the National Assembly was held up for several months until outcry from civil society groups and the citizenry. It also helped that President Goodluck Jonathan in wanting to be seen as having organised a free and fair election pushed the passage of the bill at the National Assembly.
Second is the increased involvement and interest of the youths across the country. A of young Nigerians between 18 and 35 years of age will probably be voting for the first time in their lives in the forthcoming elections. Beyond voting, a lot of them have been actively involved in scrutinizing the various candidates, campaigning for their preferred candidates and getting their friends, family and colleagues involved in registering to vote. Thus, this might be another ‘Obama’ moment being repeated in Nigeria where the youths might determine the outcome of the elections as happened in the 2008 US presidential elections where they turned out enmasse to vote for the first African-American president in US history,
Third is the use of technology. Phones now have the capacity to act as still or recording cameras with capacity to transmit pictures and videos to online sites and social media pages. Again, the group mentioned above (Gen Y as they are referred to) is responsible for this tectonic shift. That is why the Inspector-General of Police might be on a collision course with a directive that cell phones will not be allowed at polling booths. How this will turn out before the elections remains to be seen. The directive, if allowed to stay will seriously hamper the ability of this group of people who are bent on not just voting but ensuring that their votes are protected. The Gen Yers are going to be a strong electoral monitoring group in the forthcoming elections and it will be in the best interest of the government, INEC and the security agencies to co-opt this group rather than intimidate, harass or coerce them in anyway. Events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have only helped to stoke the interest and zealousness of this group of people.
Fourth is the willingness for change across the country. After 12 years of democracy under the PDP government, people are clamouring for a change of batons. Jonathan, though a front runner in the forthcoming elections will definitely pay with some loss of votes (if he doesn’t lose) for this angst amongst the citizenry. In fairness to the Obasanjo government of 1999 to 2007, policies and programmes were put in place which if the YarAdua/Jonathan government had implemented from the word go will have shown remarkable improvements in the governance of the nation. This was what happened in Lagos when Babatunde Fashola took over from Asiwaju Bola Tinubu in 2007. Jonathan therefore is seen as part and parcel of the continuation of the Obasanjo/YarAdua government despite steps taken to show that he is his own man.
Expectations post April 2011
One of the major fears expressed by political pundits is a fallout of the last point from above – ‘the anything/anyone but PDP syndrome.’ Across the nation in the past eight years, there have been stellar performances from some PDP governors and representatives. Some of these who are vying for re-election may probably be swept up in the coming tornado represented by the ACN and the CPC. It has not helped that in the last one year leading up to the elections, not less than three states have been taken over by the ACN, the performances of whose governors we cannot measure right now. The ACN now controls nine states of the federation and looks set at taking probably another six, all things being equal. The question now remains: in a country where the parties do not have clear cut ideological leanings and where cross carpeting is frequent from losing parties to winning parties, will some selected performing politicians not be punished for the ‘sins of the many’.
Also to note are the myriad problems facing the country which any respected economist will tell you cannot be solved overnight. Expectations are however high from the citizenry that the new government (whatever hue it may be) is expected to not just deliver but do so fast. The probability of disaffection settling in within a year very high and all the contesting politicians are aware of this. There is therefore the possibility of any government to want to play to the gallery and take populist decisions which may however be inimical to the country’s growth in the long term. US President Barack Obama is currently experiencing the same problems and was punished severely for it in the mid-term elections last November. Nigeria, however is not structured politically for mid-term elections, so the country might be stuck with a non-performing albeit popular government for four years.
By the Side
One of the surprising things about this election is the emergence of a Muslim-Muslim ticket in Ribadu and Adeola without much ado. Not only has the ticket been widely accepted, Christians from all the major geo-political zones of the country are on a cue to vote for this ticket. This is an indication of the maturity of the electoral system and democracy in general. Though this type of ticket was voted for overwhelmingly in 1993 (the Abiola/Kingibe SDP ticket), the military did no good in obliterating that landmark through its actions between 1993 and 1998.
Another surprising thing that may also be generally glossed over is the tussle in Kwara state over who emerges the governor. Bukola Saraki, the outgoing governor and an erstwhile presidential contender refused to bow to the wishes of his father, the political godfather of the state, Dr. Olusola Saraki in allowing his sister, Gbemisola Saraki, a serving senator in taking over the reins from him. Saraki has anointed a former Commissioner in his cabinet to be his successor. His father and daughter have decamped from the PDP to contest the governorship election on another party’s platform. This again shows the maturity of the system, which we fear may be defeated by the ‘the anything/anyone but PDP syndrome’ (see above).
Prior to the emergence of President Goodluck Jonathan as the PDP flagbearer, the issue of zoning heated up the system with the North insisting that Jonathan should not contest and allow another northerner to contest and complete the late Yar’Adua’s term. Four northerners were then shortlisted and a consensus candidate selected to compete against Jonathan at the PDP primaries. Former military president, Ibrahim Babangida, former National Security Adviser, Aliyu Gusau, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar (who had decamped back to the PDP from the ACN) and outgoing Kwara state governor, Dr. Bukola Saraki were screened before a committee before the eventual emergence of Atiku. Jonathan went on to soundly defeat Atilu at the party primaries. This would not have happened in Nigeria of yesteryears despite whatever misgivings anyone might have about the conduct of that primary. Jonathan since then has embarked on fence mending to get the support of these northerners and bolster his chances at the polls.
A Vibrant System
Commentators have expressed satisfaction with the high level of the electorate’s participation in the run up to these elections. April 2011 would probably witness the largest turn out of voters comparable or exceeding what we saw in June 1993. Analysts are however more concerned that this vibrancy in the system not be allowed to run out before 2015. This year’s elections have probably witnessed the highest no of political debates ever conducted before elections. Someone even expressed surprise when it was mentioned that debates have been part and parcel of our electioneering since 1993 with the exception of the ridiculed Abacha transition program of the five leprous fingers syndrome.
Whatever the outcome of these elections, one thing is certain; it won’t be business as usual across board. Politicians will probably realise that their chances of re election are much better if they perform. Governor Fashola is a case in point. Lagosians are expecting a landslide in the election results in his favour. If the performing governor had decamped from the ACN, (especially with rumblings and rumours of wrangling between him and his erstwhile boss and party leader,) he would still have won on any party platform he choose to go to.
Though politicians may still be hell bent on rigging elections, the chances of doing so successfully and getting away with it are quite slim.
Matters Arising
Beyond April 2011, Nigerians should keep in mind that a lot of reforms still need to be put in place. Frequent party crossing/cross carpeting especially just before or just after elections needs to be restricted. A lot of Nigerians still ignore the legislative arms of government as if they are non-existent or not important. Nigeria still runs a representative democracy in which all arms of government, both executive and legislative are important. Fashola, as popular as he is in Lagos had to carry his legislative arm along in passing across his bills and getting his programs executed.
Also of note is the high cost of running and maintaining our democracy. The people need to make a demand for the cutting of these costs. Nigerians finally have to be educated that running for office goes beyond looting the system and ‘enjoying the dividends of democracy’. Many see political positions as an opportunity to partake of the so called ‘National Cake’, which I believe is shrinking more and more by the day and spreading the goodies amongst their people.
Nigeria is one of the most endowed countries in the world. With a population of 140 million people, it is also amongst the ten most populous in the world. Its special place not only in Africa but the world makes its peculiar challenges and problems of particular interest to the rest of the world. It is hoped that the new government of Nigeria come May 29, 2011 will overcome the challenges facing it and deliver on the gains being expected by not only Nigerians but the whole world.
